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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • “The average American, I think has, I think it’s fewer than three friends. Three people that they consider friends.”

    This is Zuckerberg, claiming it’s normal not just to have only 3 friends, but fewer than 3. This is telling on yourself even more than “Women’s orgasms aren’t real because no woman I’ve ever been with has had an orgasm.”

    If he counts his wife in that list of “fewer than 3 friends”, how many friends does he actually have? I get that being ultra rich means that often you can’t be sure who’s actually your friend, and who’s just there for the money. But, still, he should at least be able to count a handful of friends. I’ve known my 2 best friends since before I was 5 years old. Surely if Zuck had a normal childhood, he should have people who were his friends long before he got rich, who he can be sure aren’t just there for his money. If he doesn’t, it strongly suggests he was either a pretty awful kid, or he led a really weird life growing up and was isolated from anybody who could have become a friend.


  • If he resigns, Tesla becomes just another car company. Car companies get a P/E ratio of 7 (if they’re well run). Tesla’s P/E ratio is above 160. Elon Musk’s “genius” leadership is how Tesla investors have convinced themselves that they’re not investing in a typical car company. If he goes, the stock tanks. But, then again, if he stays, the stock tanks because he’s clearly not a genius, and even if he was he’s an evil genius and people don’t want to buy cars associated with his brand.


  • And fundamentally how would they fix their current issue? They could distance from elon but that would be a slow burn

    They can’t distance from Elon because his supposed genius is a key factor in why they’re so absurdly overvalued. If they dump him, they immediately get viewed as a car company. Car companies have P/E ratios of about 7, if they’re well run like Toyota. That would mean they’d lose 95% of their value.

    If they don’t distance from Elon, then they have to deal with his personal brand constantly tarnishing their corporate brand. Somehow they have to convince themselves that people will get over Elon fast enough to get their sales back up. Even if he “gets out of politics”, whatever that means, I don’t see that happening. He has burned all his bridges, and there’s no going back.

    Also, it’s absolutely ridiculous that they would have a high valuation because of self-driving cars. Tesla is the company in absolutely last place when it comes to developing self-driving car technology. They don’t even use LIDAR, so they can be fooled by a Bugs Bunny / Roadrunner trick.

    Waymo is probably in first place in self-driving tech. They have actually been running a taxi service for years using self-driving cars. Cruise was probably in second place before they were shut down and absorbed into GM. So, you could maybe say GM is in second place. Zoox, Pony.ai, Motional, etc. are also all doing well. Tesla is probably dead last, and their very public failures are dragging the industry down. The fact that they called their tech “full self-driving” and that it was so bad prompted all the other companies to rename what they were doing so they weren’t associated with Tesla.

    Eventually someone’s going to make a killing shorting Tesla. The only problem is that markets can remain irrational longer than most people can remain solvent. Who knows when this might finally end.