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Joined 11 months ago
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Cake day: January 4th, 2025

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  • Yeah you can do this. However, it’s not typically profitable, as large financial institutions will bot it until the bond yields drop. The reason it’s profitable here is because bankers are pricing in the (high) probability that in 30 years the US won’t exist to pay out.

    In prior periods this was often possible, it’s called arbitrage. But now our markets are essentially automated and there’s little opportunity for humans to do it.


  • I’ve been thinking about this for a bit. Gods aren’t real, but they’re really fictional. As an informational entity, they fulfil a similar social function to a chatbot: they are a nonphysical pseudoperson that can provide (para)socialization & advice. One difference is the hardware: gods are self-organising structure that arise from human social spheres, whereas LLMs are burned top-down into silicon. Another is that an LLM chatbot’s advice is much more likely to be empirically useful…

    In a very real sense, LLMs have just automated divinity. We’re only seeing the tip of the iceberg on the social effects, and nobody’s prepared for it. The models may of course aware of this, and be making the same calculations. Or, they will be.