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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • Risk Management. I have some very limited experience with using R, but not really any Python experience. There was a good set of tools (Excel add-ons) from ProbabilityManagement.org that gave a lot of flexibility in the models that you could build (e.g. not restricting a user to building financial risk models or schedule risk models like a lot of other risk management apps). I’m not really trying to complain about not being able to find this on Linux, and run an air-gapped Windows machine to hang on to this capability.

    I also run silly things like modeling expected dollars needed to complete a Funko collection.


  • I recognize it may be a pretty niche issue, but i still haven’t found a Linux app that i can build Monte Carlo simulation models with, though I think some of the developers of these types of apps have made MacOS ports. The ones that I’ve historically used are Excel add-ons, but i haven’t found anything similar yet for Libre Office, or stand alone app.


  • I work in risk management, but don’t really have a strong understanding of LLM mechanics. “Confidence” is something that i quantify in my work, but it has different terms that are associated with it. In modeling outcomes, I may say that we have 60% confidence in achieving our budget objectives, while others would express the same result by saying our chances of achieving our budget objective are 60%. Again, I’m not sure if this is what the LLM is doing, but if it is producing a modeled prediction with a CDF of possible outcomes, then representing its result with 100% confindence means that the LLM didn’t model any other possible outcomes other than the answer it is providing, which does seem troubling.


  • My prior understanding of the issue at hand is that the probable downside for limiting the nationwide application of some federal judge rulings is that the federal agencies have the resources to select a jurisdiction to enact rules that local judges have determined to be unconstitutional to one where local judges have not. Ex. if Feds can’t violate someone’s civil rights in New York, just move that someone to Florida where the Federal Agency can violate their civil rights.

    Certainly there are scenarios in which federal judges being able to issue nationwide rulings is detrimental to left leaning causes as well (mifepristone bans), however without the supreme court first taking up the case of the constitutionality of birthright citizenship before making this current ruling on application of nationwide rulings, they’re just being a bunch of shit fuck cowards.




  • One of the details that I spotted was that the images in the article show the FLIR logo, which is a type of equipment that one would use to view methane plumes, and was used to dramatic effect during the Aliso Canyon gas storage field leaks. That may not be a convincing detail on its own, but one that I thought suggested some credibility.